A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
